March 20th 2024 Stock Market analysis

Nifty, Sensex end marginally higher; markets eye Fed rate cut hints

The benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex managed to eke out slight gains on March 20, despite earlier losses, as investors awaited the outcome of the US Fed meeting. The energy and auto sectors saw buying support, while metal stocks weighed on the indices. Robust FII & DII inflows continued to buoy the market. According to the latest market consensus, the likelihood of a rate cut in June has diminished, with expectations that the US Fed may postpone it to later in the year due to the strength of the economy. In the short term, domestic mid & small caps are expected to underperform large caps due to their premium valuations," commented Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

The Sensex closed 89.64 points or 0.12 % higher at 72,101.69, while the Nifty rose 21.60 points or 0.10 % to close at 21,839.10. Among the sectors, Nifty Energy, FMCG, Infra, Realty, and Auto registered gains, whereas Nifty Metal, Pharma, and IT witnessed declines. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty ended in the red for the 9th consecutive day.

Technical Outlook on 21st March

Nifty is anticipated to find immediate support levels around 21,729 and subsequently at 21,619, with resistances expected at 21,949 and then 22,059. Currently, Nifty appears poised for a volatile trading environment.

Similarly, Bank Nifty is projected to encounter immediate support around 45,897, followed by 45,484, while resistances are likely at 46,723 and then 47,136. Bank Nifty is also poised for a period of volatility in trading.

Derivative Outlook on 21st March

PCR Analysis: Nifty PCR-OI has increased with nifty has positive which shows PUT WRITING.

Open Interest Analysis: Nifty future March contract OI has decreased with positive close which shows Short Covering.

Cost of Carry Analysis: Nifty MARCH month contract has ended in high compare with APR contract and high range compare with previous session which  indicates a high swing trade.

India VIX Analysis: India VIX has closed at 13.47 vs 14.11 (DoD) basis which shows decrease in volatility.‍

Maruti Suzuki Shares Surge Beyond Rs 12,000 Mark; CLSA Forecasts Car Maker's Continued Dominance in CNG Sector

India's leading carmaker Maruti Suzuki saw its shares surpass the Rs 12,000 milestone during mid-day trading on March 20, reaching Rs 11,992.50, marking a 3.41 percent increase. In a recent report, brokerage firm CLSA emphasized Maruti's continued dominance in the CNG PV segment, projecting a 72 percent market share. CLSA anticipates that the growth in CNG passenger vehicles will benefit stocks like Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors. They estimate the market share of CNG PVs to escalate from 15 % in FY2024 to 22 percent in FY2030, driven by the lower running costs of CNG vehicles. Maruti Suzuki reported a net profit of Rs 3,130 crore in Q3FY24, up 33 % YoY, with revenue increasing by 15 percent to Rs 33,309.7 crore. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) surged by 38 percent YoY to Rs 3,909 crore. During the same period, the company sold a total of 4,65,911 vehicles, reflecting an 8.2 %YoY increase, with domestic sales at 4,03,929 units and exports at 61,982 units. Over the past six months, the stock has risen by approximately 15 percent, with a year-to-date increase of around 46 percent.

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