March 15th 2024 Stock Market analysis

Market Meltdown: Sensex and Nifty Plunge Over 2% in Weekly Freefall, Marking Steepest Decline in 20 Weeks

India's benchmark Sensex and Nifty endured their first weekly decline in four weeks, registering a roughly two percent loss, marking the most substantial downturn in 20 weeks. The persistent broad-based selling and tumult in mid and small-cap stocks have rattled investors, particularly in light of regulatory warnings. The Sensex dropped 2.2 percent, while the Nifty fell 2.1 percent, marking the steepest weekly plunge since October 2023. Similarly, BSE MidCap and SmallCap indices experienced losses of around 4 percent and 6 percent, respectively, exacerbating concerns about market stability.

Meanwhile, weakness in global equities, driven by discouraging US economic data, has diminished expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, further souring market sentiment. Additionally, reports revealing higher-than-expected US producer prices in February, coupled with fewer individuals applying for jobless benefits than anticipated, have undermined the case for Fed intervention. The ongoing market correction, anticipated by analysts due to inflated valuations post-2023 bull run, is viewed as a necessary recalibration to address overbought conditions. Moreover, regulatory measures such as SEBI's directive to mutual funds to enhance investor protection and stress testing initiatives aim to shore up market resilience and safeguard investor interests during periods of market turbulence.

Technical Outlook on 18th March

Nifty has remained in a negative range bound trade and positionally it may be possible to test 21657 levels.

Banknifty are also in a negative range bound trade and positionally it may be possible to test 46060 levels and ones that close below 46060 on daily basis means some more drop ahead.

Derivative Outlook on 18th March

PCR Analysis: Nifty PCR-OI has decreased with nifty has negative close which shows CALL WRITING.

Open Interest Analysis: Nifty future JAN contract OI has decreased with negative close which shows Long Unwinding.

Cost of Carry Analysis: Nifty JAN month contract has ended in high compare with FEB contract and high range compare with previous session which indicates a recover from lower levels.

India VIX Analysis: India VIX has closed at 13.69 vs 13.62 (DoD) basis which shows increase in volatility.

‍Tata Investment Corp stock hit 5% lower circuit for fifth straight session‍

Tata Investment Corp Ltd encountered a 5 % lower circuit following a substantial block deal where approximately 35 crore shares changed hands, as reported by CNBC. However, details regarding the buyers and sellers involved in the deal remained undisclosed. Remarkably, this marked the fifth consecutive trading session where the stock faced a 5 percent lower circuit, resulting in a notable decline of around 22.6 percent over this period.

Tata Investment, a subsidiary of Tata Sons Pvt Ltd since 2008, specializes in long-term investments, particularly in equity shares. Tata Sons and other Tata Group firms collectively own about 73.38% of its capital. However, Tata Group stocks have recently witnessed volatility, initially surging amid anticipation of Tata Sons' IPO, only to later decline as reports suggested the IPO might not materialize soon. Amid speculations surrounding Tata Sons' IPO, some group stocks surged by up to 36 percent. Tata Sons, classified as an "upper layer" NBFC, is obligated to list within three years of notification by the RBI, issued in September 2023, requiring listing by September 2025. The parent company is currently exploring options to comply with RBI norms. Additionally, Tata Investment recently announced key appointments, including Savitha Narayanan as Chief Technology Officer and the reappointment of Ankan Mondal as Chief Risk Officer, effective from April 1, 2024. Moreover, Jenniefer Samuel has been appointed as Head of Internal Audit following the resignation of Kersi Bhagat.