January 19th 2024 Stock Market Analysis

Bulls returned to the market with force, propelling the Nifty above 21,600 and driving the Sensex up by 496 points.

Strong global cues helped the domestic frontline indices, BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50, break a three-day losing streak on January 19, with notable gains in auto and metal stocks. Analysts caution, however, that the current rally may be temporary, especially with the onset of the corporate earnings season. They advise investors to closely monitor the Nifty's performance around the 21,500 level, as a breach could potentially lead to a market downturn. The Sensex closed up 0.7 percent at 71,683, while the Nifty 50 recorded a 0.7 percent increase to reach 21,622 on January 19.

In today's trading session on the NSE, the top gainers included ONGC, trading at 241.85 with a gain of +3.55%, followed by Bharati Airtel at 1123 with a rise of +3.31%, and NTPC at 308.85 with a positive movement of +3.19%. On the flip side, in the banking sector, IndusInd Bank faced losses, trading at 1560.5 with a decline of -3.25%, while Kotak Mahindra Bank traded at 1760.9 with a decrease of -0.92%, and HDFC Bank traded at 1474.9 with a dip of -0.76%.

For the third consecutive day, HDFC emerged as the most active stock by both value and volume.

‍Technical outlook

The Nifty commenced the day with a gap up, subsequently engaging in consolidation trading. Looking ahead, a modest profit booking is anticipated, potentially leading to a downturn until the 21,432 levels.

As for the Bank Nifty, it also opened with a gap up but experienced profit booking during today's trading session. The outlook suggests further profit booking, with a potential decline expected up to the 44,896 levels.

Derivative outlook

PCR Analysis: Nifty PCR-OI has decreased with nifty has positive close which shows CALL BUYING.

Open Interest Analysis: Nifty future JAN contract OI has decreased with negative close which shows Short Covering.

Cost of Carry Analysis: Nifty JAN month contract has ended in high compare with FEB contract and low range compare with previous session which indicates a mixed trade.

India VIX Analysis: India VIX has closed at 13.88 vs 14.07 (DoD) basis which shows decrease in volatility.

Overall, markets open with negative bias then recover in lower levels than may be expected.

‍Reliance Q3 Results: Jio reports net profit Rs.5,208 crore, high 12% YoY

Reliance Jio Infocomm posted a strong financial performance on Friday, revealing a robust 12.3% year-on-year growth in net profit for the quarter ended December, reaching Rs 5,208 crore. The company also witnessed a noteworthy 10.3% YoY increase in revenue from operations, amounting to Rs 25,368 crore. On a sequential basis, the bottom line saw an impressive nearly 3% rise, while the topline experienced a solid growth of 2.5%.

During the quarter, the operating margin saw a marginal contraction to 26.3%, compared to 26.6% a year ago and 26.4% in the previous quarter.

Total expenses for the quarter increased to Rs 18,518 crore from Rs 16,839 crore a year ago and Rs 18,063 crore in the preceding quarter. Network operating expenses also saw an uptick, rising to Rs 7,706 crore from Rs 7,227 crore a year ago and Rs 7,607 crore in the previous quarter.

The costs related to license fees/spectrum charges increased to Rs 2,330 crore from Rs 2,120 crore a year ago and Rs 2,290 crore in the previous quarter. Additionally, deferred tax for the quarter amounted to Rs 1,787 crore, compared to Rs 1,584 crore a year ago.

For the nine months ending in December, the telecom operator reported a 12% year-on-year increase in profit, reaching Rs 15,129 crore, while revenue witnessed a solid growth of 10%, reaching Rs 74,160 crore.

‍RVNL shares surged to the upper circuit of 20% after witnessing multiple block deals, resulting in strong settlement at the maximum limit.

Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) shares achieved their upper circuit and reached a new 52-week high on January 19, driven by multiple block deals. Closing at Rs 292.3 on the NSE, the shares marked a significant 20% increase from the previous session's closing price.

Technical indicators suggest that the stock is currently in the 'overbought' zone, with its RSI registering at 88.9.

In addition to the positive market performance, RVNL secured the lowest bid for a Jabalpur project valued at Rs 251 crore on January 16. Earlier this month, the KRDCL-RVNL joint venture received approval for a substantial upgrade of the Varkala Sivagiri railway station, with a project cost totaling Rs 123.36 crore.

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