Jan 8th 2024 Share Market Analysis Report

"Sensex and Nifty Experience 1% Decline: Analysts Consider Correction Routine Ahead of Q3"

Despite opening with marginal gains, domestic benchmark indices, namely the S&P BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50, shifted into negative territory on January 8. This downturn occurred as retail enthusiasm waned following a robust US jobs report, which reignited a rally in 10-year treasury yields, subsequently diminishing prospects for rate cuts. 

On the trading day, the NSE closed at 21,513, marking a decline of 0.91%, while the BSE concluded at 71,355, recording a 0.93% decrease. Despite this overall negative trend, specific stocks exhibited noteworthy performances. Adaniports emerged as one of the top gainers on the NSE, trading at 1172.4 with a gain of 1.57%. ONGC also posted positive gains, trading at 217.65 with a 0.55% increase, and it secured the top volume position. NTPC followed suit, trading at 316.6 with a 0.52% gain. On the flip side, the top losers in the NSE market included UPL, which traded at 561.25 and experienced a significant loss of 3.44%. SBILIFE recorded a -2.60% decline, trading at 1416.4, while SBIN traded at 627.9 with a 2.19% loss.

Despite the day's market fluctuations, individual stock movements and performances provide a nuanced view of the dynamic trading landscape. Investors continue to navigate the market with a focus on both gainers and losers, assessing specific stocks for potential opportunities and risks.

FMCG Shares Decline as Q3 Business Update Indicates Flat Sales

Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) companies, including Marico, Dabur India, and Godrej Consumer Products, are anticipated to report flat sales and weak volume growth in the October-to-December quarter, as indicated by their Q3 updates. This led to a decline in FMCG stocks, with Marico, Dabur India, and Godrej Consumer witnessing drops of 4.2%, 2.23%, and 3.79%, respectively. Even FMCG giant HUL, though not sharing a quarterly update, experienced a 1.91% decrease. Brokerage firms note weak volume recovery in India, but anticipate support for gross margins from low raw material costs. In terms of projections, Dabur India expects mid-to-single-digit revenue growth, Godrej Consumer Products foresees flat revenue growth, and Marico anticipates a decline in low-single-digit revenue growth for Q3FY24. Volume projections also show modest growth for Marico and Godrej Consumer Products in the low-single digits and high-single digits, respectively.

Technical Outlook on 9th Jan

Nifty has witnessed a profit booking mood and it may be possible to test 21329 levels positionally. And intraday key levels like support near 21446 then 21379 and resistances are 21580 then 21647. Now the nifty is looking in a negative bias.

Bank Nifty may expect an intraday support near 47259 then 47068 and resistances are  47641 then 47832. Now the bank nifty is looking in a negative bias and positionally it may be possible to test 46765 levels.

Derivative Outlook on 9th Jan

PCR Analysis: Nifty PCR-OI has decreased with nifty has negative close which shows CALL WRITING.

Open Interest Analysis: Nifty future JAN contract OI has decreased with negative close which shows Long Unwinding.

Cost of Carry Analysis: Nifty JAN month contract has ended in low compare with FEB contract and low range compare with previous session which indicates a negative bias.

India VIX Analysis: India VIX has closed at 13.52 vs 12.55 (DoD) basis which shows increase in volatility.

Overall, Tomorrow market remains in the negative range bound only.