February 13th 2024 Stock Market analysis

Banks Drive Sensex and Nifty Higher; Consolidation Expected Pending Next Catalyst

On February 13, domestic benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty traded positively, driven by the strength in banking stocks. As we approach the final phase of the corporate earnings season, analysts anticipate that Nifty will fluctuate within the range of 21,100 to 22,000 in the short term, as investors await the next catalyst for market movement. Sensex and Nifty each rose by 0.6 percent to reach 71,555 and 21,743, respectively. The broader markets also saw some relief, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices rising by up to 0.3 percent. India VIX, which measures market volatility, cooled off by one percent, hovering around the 15 level.

Among the top gainers on the NSE Nifty were Coal India, trading at 453 with a gain of 4.67%, UPL, trading at 479.2 with a 4.54% increase, and Axis Bank, trading at 1070.6 with a 2.28% rise. Conversely, the top losers included Hindalco, trading at 509.45 with a significant loss of 12.53%, Grasim, trading at 2068.55 with a 3.67% decrease, and Divis Labs, trading at 3700 with a 1.07% decline. The most active stock by volume was Hindalco, traded at 509.45 with a volume of 4,61,00,123 shares.

Technical outlook on 14th February 

Nifty is anticipated to find immediate support levels around 21,632 followed by 21,521, while resistance levels are expected at 21,854 and 21,965. Currently, Nifty shows signs of a volatility trade with a negative bias.

Meanwhile, Bank Nifty is likely to encounter immediate support near 45,038 and 44,806, with resistance levels projected at 45,966 and 46,430. Presently, Bank Nifty is indicating a volatility trade with a negative bias.

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Derivative Outlook on 14th February

PCR Analysis: Nifty PCR-OI has increased with nifty has positive close which shows mild PUT WRITING.

Open Interest Analysis: Nifty future Feb contract OI has increased with positive close which shows Long Buildup.

Cost of Carry Analysis: Nifty FEB month contract has ended in low compare with MARCH contract and low range compare with previous session which indicates a mild profit booking.

India VIX Analysis: India VIX has closed at 15.81 vs 16.06 (DoD) basis which shows decrease in volatility.

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Mahindra & Mahindra Q3 Earnings Outlook: Anticipated 45% Surge in Net Profit Driven by Robust Auto Volumes

Mahindra & Mahindra is poised to unveil its third-quarter results on February 14, with expectations of a robust performance driven by a 45 percent surge in net profit and an 18 percent increase in revenue, primarily fueled by strong volumes in the auto segment. According to estimates from five brokerages, the company's standalone net profit is projected to reach Rs 2,212.46 crore, marking a 45 percent year-on-year rise, while revenue is forecasted to climb to Rs 25,587.98 crore, reflecting an 18 percent increase. Despite a slight dip in EBITDA margin by 22 basis points compared to the previous year, it is anticipated to expand sequentially. In Q3FY24, M&M witnessed a notable 11.1 percent year-on-year rise in sales volume, reaching 3,13,115 units, driven by a 20.1 percent increase in auto sales to 2,11,443 units, albeit offset by a 3.9 percent decline in tractor volumes to 1,01,672 units compared to the previous year. Notably, M&M shares surged by 11% in the October to December quarter, matching the returns of Nifty 50 during the same period.